The two parliamentary constituencies that serve the Ashfield district could return Labour MPs at next months General Election, according to a major opinion poll published yesterday (Monday) by YouGov. For the multi-level regression and post-stratification poll, or MRP, YouGov polled around 60,000 people across the UK and combined this with local data to predict constituency-level results.
The national MRP poll predicts that Labour will win 422 seats and gain a majority of 194 – the second largest majority in British political history. The poll predicts the Conservatives would win 140 MPs, down 225; with the Lib Dems replacing the SNP as the third largest party in the Commons, with 48 MPs, up 37. The SNP would lose 31 MPs to be left with 17. The poll also predicts that the Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru would lose two seats and be left with just two MPs, while the Greens would double their representation with two MPs.
In the Sherwood Forest constituency, which includes the four electoral wards in Hucknall, YouGov predict that Sir Mark Spencer will lose his seat with a “lean” Labour victory for Labour’s Michelle Welsh.
The poll predicts the following results for Sherwood Forest:
| Labour | 41.1 per cent |
| Conservatives | 34.8 per cent |
| Reform | 13.4 per cent |
| Green | 5 per cent |
| Liberal Democrats | 4.9 per cent |
In Ashfield, YouGov are more confident of a “likely” Labour gain from Conservatives. Although Lee Anderson left Parliament as a Reform UK MP, he was elected as a Conservative, and pollsters base election gains and losses on actual results rather than mid-term political party switches. If correct, Labour’s Rhea Keehn will take the seat from Lee Anderson.
The poll predicts the following results for Ashfield:
| Labour | 35.5 per cent |
| Reform | 20.1 per cent |
| Conservatives | 17.7 per cent |
| Liberal Democrats | 6.5 per cent |
| Green | 6.5 per cent |
The Ashfield Independents do not feature in YouGov’s predictions for either constituency. In last year’s local elections, the party won 52 per cent of the vote, picking up 32 of the 35 seats on Ashfield District Council on a turnout of 32 per cent.
We asked YouGov about this but they did not respond.
The Liberal Democrats are yet to name their candidate in Ashfield. All candidates have until 4 pm on Friday 7 June to complete their nomination process.
The YouGov MRP poll suggests that several government ministers and other senior Conservatives could lose their seats, including the Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt (Godalming and Ash), Alex Chalk (Cheltenham), Michelle Donelan (Chippenham), Grant Shapps (Welwyn Hatfield), Penny Mordaunt (Portsmouth North), Mel Stride (Central Devon), Mark Harper (Forest of Dean), and David T C Davies (Monmouthshire).
It suggests that Boris Johnson’s former constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip could be taken by Labour – overturning the result of last year’s by-election, when the Tory candidate won the seat.
But it isn’t all good news for Labour: the shadow secretary of state for culture, media and sport, Thangam Debbonaire, is predicted to lose her Bristol Central seat to a Green Party gain
There will be many opinion polls published between now and the general election on 4 July. The MRP poll is a particularly extensive poll, and YouGov will repeat the exercise twice in the weeks between now and polling day.
- A list of candidates standing in Ashfield and Sherwood Forest can be found here. It will be updated as names are announced up to the official confirmation of candidates at 5.00 pm on Friday 7 June.
Ashfield Neighbour News is editorially independent and politically neutral. We will bring news of the election campaign in both constituencies. Check back for updates as we approach UK General Election 2024 on 4 July, and stay with us overnight on 4/5 July as we bring you the results from both constituencies.