Ipsos MRP poll predicts victory for Reform’s Lee Anderson in Ashfield
The latest MRP poll, by polling company Ipsos, has predicted a “strong” prediction that Lee Anderson will retain his Ashfield constituency for Reform UK. In contradicts an earlier MRP poll by YouGov which predicted a “likely” victory for Labour’s Rhea Keehn. Both polls predict a “lean” victory for Michelle Welsh, the Labour candidate in Sherwood Forest.
This latest MRP poll by Ipsos draws on data from 20,000 voters, compared to 60,000 by YouGov. Nationally, the Ipsos poll predicts a Labour landslide, with 453 MPs, compared to 115 Conservatives. It predicts that the Liberal Democrats will have 38 MPs, the SNP 15 seats and Plaid Cymru four.
The poll also predicts the first elected MPs for Reform UK, with three seats in the new Parliament. Currently, the only MP to have represented Reform in Parliament was Lee Anderson, who switched from the Conservatives to Reform earlier this year.
As with the earlier YouGov poll, the Ipsos poll takes no account of the Ashfield Independents.
Yesterday’s Ipsos poll predicts the following results for Ashfield:
| Reform UK | 61 % |
| Labour | 22 % |
| Conservative | 8 % |
| Green | 7 % |
| Liberal Democrats | 2 % |
And the poll predicts the following results for Sherwood Forest:
| Labour | 40 % |
| Conservative | 32 % |
| Reform UK | 19 % |
| Green | 5 % |
| Liberal Democrats | 5 % |
- A list of all candidates standing in Ashfield and Sherwood Forest can be found here.
Ashfield Neighbour News is editorially independent and politically neutral. We will bring news of the election campaign in both constituencies. Check back for updates as we approach UK General Election 2024 on 4 July, and stay with us overnight on 4/5 July as we bring you the results from both constituencies.