A shock poll by Savanta for The Daily Telegraph, which predicts that prime minister Rishi Sunak will lose his own seat in the general election, has put the Ashfield Independents’ Jason Zadrozny in second place in the Ashfield constituency. It is the first poll to put Reform’s Lee Anderson in third place. It predicts a win for Labour’s Rhea Keehn.
The MRP poll predicts Labour would win an astonishing 516 seats nationally, with the Conservatives all-but wiped out, with just 53 MPs returning to Westminster after the general election. The Liberal Democrats are predicted to win 50 seats, putting them within a gnat’s whisker of becoming the official opposition party.
It predicts that Rishi Sunak could be the first sitting prime minister to lose their seat in a general election in UK election history. It predicts that Sunak will gain 29.2 per cent of the vote in Richmond and Northallerton, well below Labour’s Tom Wilson, on 34.5 per cent.
The poll suggests a strong challenge from Reform’s Lee Taylor, on 19.3 per cent. Daniel Callaghan for the Liberal Democrats is predicted to gain 11.1 per cent. The remaining nine candidates in Richmond and Northallerton, including the Green Party and Count Binface, are predicted to gain less than six per cent between them.
The poll is very different from two earlier polls published this week: Ipsos predicted a strong win for Lee Anderton in Ashfield, while YouGov predicted a “toss-up” win between Anderson and Labour’s Rhea Keehn.
In Sherwood Forest, the Savanta poll mirrors earlier polls by YouGov and Ipsos, which predict a win for Labour’s Michelle Welsh over incumbent Conservative Sir Mark Spencer.
The Savanta / Electoral Calculus poll for The Daily Telegraph predicts the following results for Ashfield:
| Labour | 33.7 per cent |
| Ashfield Independents | 27.8 per cent |
| Reform | 16.0 per cent |
| Conservative | 14.4 per cent |
| Liberal Democrats | 5.4 per cent |
| Green | 2.7 per cent |
The Savanta / Electoral Calculus poll for The Daily Telegraph predicts the following results for Sherwood Forest:
| Labour | 47.4 per cent |
| Conservative | 22.8 per cent |
| Reform UK | 20.2 per cent |
| Liberal Democrats | 4.7 per cent |
| Green | 4.7 per cent |
| Other (two Independents) | 0.2 per cent |
- A list of all candidates standing in Ashfield and Sherwood Forest can be found here.
Ashfield Neighbour News is editorially independent and politically neutral. We will bring news of the election campaign in both constituencies. Check back for updates as we approach UK General Election 2024 on 4 July, and stay with us overnight on 4/5 July as we bring you the results from both constituencies.
