YouGov have tonight (Wednesday) published their second MRP election poll of the general election campaign, and like yesterday’s Ipsos poll, it predicts victory for Reform UK candidate Lee Anderson – but with a much lower confidence rating, saying that the seat is a “toss-up” between Anderson and Labour’s Rhea Keehn.
Tonight’s poll is the first to take account of the Ashfield Independents, putting their leader Jason Zadrozny in third place, ahead of the Conservatives’ Debbie Soloman. The absence of the Ashfield Independents from yesterday’s Ipsos poll may explain the large discrepancy between the two polls in the size of the gap between Anderson and Keehn.
Ipsos, which excluded the Ashfield Independents from their calculations, put Anderson on 61 per cent, with Keehn on 22 per cent. Tonight’s YouGov poll, which had a sample size three times bigger than Ipsos and which took account of the Ashfield Independents, put Anderson on 32 per cent and Keehn on 29 per cent.
Neither the Ipsos or YouGov figures are based on a full constituency-level opinion poll. MRP stands for Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification. It uses a national sample to model estimates of support in smaller areas, such as regions or constituencies.
Like YouGov’s previous MRP poll, and last night’s Ipsos poll, YouGov are tonight predicting a victory for Labour’s Michelle Welsh in Sherwood Forest, which includes Hucknall. But they also predict a strong showing foe Reform’s Helen Rose-O’Hare, suggesting that she can push the sitting Conservative, Sir Mark Spencer into third place.
The only certainty is that the parties and candidates will pull out all the stops to close the gaps and fight for every last vote.
Tonight’s YouGov poll predicts the following results for Ashfield:
| Reform UK | 32 % |
| Labour | 29 % |
| Ashfield Independents (“Other”) | 15.6 % |
| Conservative | 14.8 % |
| Green | 4.4 % |
| Liberal Democrats | 4.2 % |
And the poll predicts the following results for Sherwood Forest:
| Labour | 36.7 % |
| Reform UK | 26.5 % |
| Conservative | 26.3 % |
| Liberal Democrats | 5.2 % |
| Green | 4.9 % |
| Others (two Independents) | 0.4 % |
- A list of all candidates standing in Ashfield and Sherwood Forest can be found here.
Ashfield Neighbour News is editorially independent and politically neutral. We will bring news of the election campaign in both constituencies. Check back for updates as we approach UK General Election 2024 on 4 July, and stay with us overnight on 4/5 July as we bring you the results from both constituencies.